Thousands who fled fighting in North Kordofan for army-held el-Obeid now face a new Rapid Support Forces (RSF) threat, BBC Verify reported, as UN and G7 warnings raise the risk of another el-Fasher-style massacre. The city remains under Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) control, but food, fuel, and safe options are running out.
Families keep arriving. Satellite imagery reviewed in BBC Verify’s reporting shows the main displacement camp has expanded sharply since March, with hundreds of new tents. Mohamed Refaat, IOM chief of mission in Sudan, said families “have run out of safe options to protect themselves” and that many have already been displaced once and forced to move again.
Why does el-Obeid matter in the Sudan civil war?
El-Obeid sits at the hinge of the Sudan civil war. North Kordofan has become a critical target for both sides. Take the city and you open a gateway into contested territory between RSF-held western ground and the military-held center.
Nohad Eltayeb, senior research assistant at Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), told BBC Verify the city is the “critical juncture connecting RSF-controlled western territories with the military-held central and White Nile regions.” She said the RSF needs momentum after territorial losses in the eastern Blue Nile region and after internal instability and defections in Darfur strongholds.
That geography explains the pressure. It also explains why displaced people keep choosing el-Obeid even as drones hit fuel sites and warehouses. For many, there is no second city left that looks safer.
How close is the RSF to attacking?
UN officials and G7 foreign ministers have warned that the RSF may be preparing an assault. Those warnings track the memory of el-Fasher, which fell to the RSF in October after an 18-month siege. Mass executions followed, one of the worst atrocities since the war began in April 2023.
Verified footage now shows heavily armed RSF troops in armored trucks in Nyala, a nearby stronghold, vowing to “liberate” el-Obeid, according to BBC Verify. In one clip on the paramilitary’s official Telegram channel, a commander waved an assault rifle and promised combat in the city. Another late May clip showed fighters gathering with armored vehicles outside Nyala; a fighter boasted that el-Obeid was next. Recent footage located by BBC Verify placed fighters within about 40 kilometers (24 miles) of the city.
The air war already arrived. ACLED recorded a record number of RSF drone strikes on el-Obeid in June. Analysts told BBC the July drop reflected RSF responses to SAF attacks elsewhere, not a permanent pause. Verified video last month showed a large explosion at a fuel station after a drone strike. Satellite images also pointed to damage at power stations and supply warehouses in the market district.
What does a “functional siege” look like on the ground?
Last week the UN warned that nearly 400,000 people in the city’s vicinity face food shortages after months of RSF efforts to cut supply routes. One UN official called the result a “functional siege.”
Locals have said supply convoys trying to reach the city have been hit by drones. Islamic Relief, which has run aid stations in el-Obeid, told BBC Verify that flights carrying aid via the airport have stopped. One humanitarian official working with the charity said a recent slowdown in drone strikes improved distribution and restored some power, but called the situation “unpredictable,” with fuel still short.
Arrivals keep rising. The same aid worker estimated about 80 or 100 households a day. Exact counts are hard. The direction is not.
Suspicion has also risen inside the city. Volker Türk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, said many displaced people who sought shelter in el-Obeid have faced hostility from locals who fear RSF sympathizers are infiltrating. The camp expands. Trust shrinks.
How is the Sudanese army preparing?
Satellite images suggest the SAF is building a defensive berm, an earth wall, around el-Obeid. Unlike the berm the RSF built around el-Fasher last year, which trapped civilians inside a siege, this wall appears aimed at keeping attackers out, BBC Verify reported.
On Monday, the military said a large operation had secured a vital highway between el-Obeid and the capital, Khartoum. RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, answered by saying he was “unleashing” his fighters and ordering front-line commanders to “move straight forward. No more retreat. No more hesitation.”
The war has run since April 15, 2023, when fighting between the SAF and the RSF exploded in Khartoum and then spread. Earlier WarEcho reporting tracked the war’s third year and spreading famine, drone strikes that killed 28 civilians, and atrocity patterns in Darfur. El-Obeid now sits on that same continuum: siege pressure, displacement, and a race to control the next strategic city.
Who is being pressed to cut support?
A joint EU/G7 warning on el-Obeid urged all “external actors” to suspend “armed, logistical, or financial support to the parties to the conflict.” Earlier this month the European Parliament named the United Arab Emirates as a key RSF backer. Emirati officials have repeatedly denied the charge.
Alan Boswell, Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director, said the flurry of Western warnings looks driven by the failure to stop the el-Fasher massacre after a long RSF buildup. “Many are trying to turn up the volume on those warnings to prevent another round of mass atrocities in el-Obeid,” he told BBC Verify. “The key is if world leaders will put enough pressure on the RSF and its main backer to make a difference this time.”
Diplomacy is loud. Supply lines still decide who eats and who can leave.
What is at stake for civilians now?
el-Obeid was supposed to be the safer city. For tens of thousands it became a last stop, not a solution. IOM says more than 83,000 have already fled into the city from elsewhere in the state. Camps grow. Food thins. Drone records from June show the air threat is real even when ground assault has not yet begun.
If the RSF presses in, the el-Fasher sequence is the fear: siege, collapse of defenses, then mass killings. If the SAF holds, civilians still face a functional siege, daily arrivals, and infrastructure hits that cut fuel and power. Either way, Refaat’s line stands. Safe options are nearly gone.
The next checkpoint is concrete: whether external backers cut arms and logistics, whether the el-Obeid-Khartoum highway stays open, and whether RSF units now filmed within about 40 km turn those vows into an assault. For families in the tents, the clock is measured in household arrivals and empty markets, not communiques.
Sources
- BBC Verify (Matt Murphy and Peter Mwai), August 2026: “‘No safe options’ for thousands sheltering in key Sudan city as RSF advance”: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gx399l0wyo
- IOM via BBC Verify: el-Obeid as key refuge; Mohamed Refaat on exhausted safe options; 83,000+ into the city
- UN and G7 via BBC Verify: attack risk warning; nearly 400,000 facing food shortages; “functional siege”
- ACLED via BBC Verify: June drone record on el-Obeid; Nohad Eltayeb on strategic juncture
- Islamic Relief via BBC Verify: aid flights stopped; 80-100 households arriving daily
- Crisis Group (Alan Boswell) via BBC Verify: prevent another el-Fasher-scale atrocity
- European Parliament / UAE: EP named UAE as RSF backer; UAE denies
