Al-Shabaab insurgents in Somalia have demonstrated increasing operational capability in early 2026, staging major attacks on military bases and civilian targets despite sustained counterinsurgency operations. The jihadist group, which controls significant rural territory in southern and central Somalia, has exploited the ongoing transition of African Union forces to inflict casualties on Somali security forces. The group’s resilience contradicts repeated government declarations that Al-Shabaab is on the verge of defeat.
The security situation has been complicated by the gradual withdrawal of the African Union Transition Mission, which has been supporting Somali forces since 2007. The drawdown leaves Somali forces to hold territory with fewer supporting assets just as Al-Shabaab has demonstrated increased aggression. Commanders have warned that premature transition of security responsibilities could unravel recent gains.
We are making progress against Al-Shabaab, but the enemy is adapting. We need continued support until our forces can stand fully alone.
Attack Pattern
Al-Shabaab has demonstrated the ability to conduct complex attacks involving multiple teams and vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices. The group has struck military bases, police stations, and civilian infrastructure including hotels and markets in Mogadishu. Outside the capital, Al-Shabaab administers its own governance structures in areas under its control, collecting taxes and providing some services.
International Counterterrorism
The United States continues to conduct drone strikes against Al-Shabaab leadership targets, though the pace of operations has fluctuated. American forces have also provided intelligence and advisory support to Somali operations. The Islamic State affiliate in Somalia remains a secondary concern compared to Al-Shabaab, though its presence complicates the overall security landscape.