Somalia’s government declared in February 2026 that US-backed airstrikes and expanded ground operations have shifted the momentum in its long-running war against Al-Shabaab. Officials pointed to a series of territorial victories in previously contested regions as evidence that the militant group’s grip on rural southern and central Somalia is weakening (AP). The claims came nearly two decades after the war on Al-Shabaab first began, with Mogadishu’s front-line defenses still ranging from machine gunners mounted on pick-up trucks to plainclothes checkpoint men screening vehicles along the capital’s arterial roads (AP).
Yet the optimism from the Somali government stands in stark contrast to warnings from international observers who say the threat is far from over. A renewed surge in Al-Shabaab’s operational tempo between July and August 2025 demonstrated the group’s continued ability to strike at will, even as government forces pushed into new territory (African Security Analysis). The disconnect between official claims of progress and the persistent reality on the ground has defined Somalia’s security landscape for years.
Momentum Against Al-Shabaab
The Somali National Army, backed by US military advisors and airstrikes, launched a series of coordinated offensives targeting Al-Shabaab strongholds in the Hirshabelle and South West states during late 2025 and into early 2026. Government forces reported recapturing several key towns and disrupting supply lines that the group had used to funnel weapons and fighters across the region (AP). Local clan militias, known as Ma’awisley, continued to play a significant role in holding territory after federal troops moved on to new frontlines.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud framed the campaign as a decisive turning point, arguing that sustained military pressure combined with international support had degraded Al-Shabaab’s ability to hold territory openly. The expanded US role included both intelligence sharing and direct strike operations against senior militant commanders, though Washington has not publicly disclosed the full scope of its involvement (AP). Somali officials maintained that the government was closer than ever to breaking the group’s capacity for large-scale conventional operations.
UN Warning
Despite the government’s confidence, United Nations experts issued a sobering assessment in their latest report. The panel warned that Al-Shabaab remains the greatest immediate threat to peace and stability in both Somalia and neighboring Kenya, noting that the group continues to exploit political disunity, weakened military capacity, and deepening humanitarian vulnerabilities across the Horn of Africa (UN).
Al-Shabaab remains the greatest immediate threat to peace and stability in Somalia and Kenya, with the group exploiting political divisions and humanitarian crises to sustain its operations.
The UN report highlighted the renewed surge in militant activity between July and August 2025, during which Al-Shabaab carried out a concentrated wave of bombings, assassinations, and ambushes against government and allied forces. Analysts noted that the group had adapted its tactics, shifting toward asymmetric attacks and extortion networks that generate an estimated $100 million annually to fund operations (African Security Analysis). The militants’ financial resilience has allowed them to recruit fighters even in areas where they no longer hold physical territory.
African Union Withdrawal
Adding to the complexity of Somalia’s security situation is the planned drawdown of the African Union peacekeeping mission, which has served as a critical backstop for Somali government forces since 2007. The transition from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, known as ATMIS, is set to hand full security responsibility to Somali national forces by the end of 2026 (UN). The withdrawal has raised concerns among security analysts who question whether Somalia’s army is ready to fill the gap left by thousands of departing troops.
The phased pullout has already seen contingents from several troop-contributing countries reduce their presence at forward operating bases in the south. Somali commanders have publicly expressed confidence in their ability to maintain gains, but privately some officials have acknowledged that the timeline is aggressive given the persistent Al-Shabaab threat (African Security Analysis). The departure of AU forces could create a vacuum that the militant group is well positioned to exploit, particularly in remote areas where government presence remains thin.
Nearly two decades into this conflict, Somalia faces a pivotal moment. The government’s territorial gains are real, but so is Al-Shabaab’s proven ability to regroup and adapt after setbacks. Whether Mogadishu can consolidate its military progress into lasting stability — while simultaneously absorbing the departure of international peacekeepers — will likely determine the trajectory of the Horn of Africa’s most enduring security crisis for years to come.