Three Months of 'Knife Intifada': An Assessment

Three months since the current wave of violence began, the so-called “knife intifada” has claimed over 150 Palestinian and 25 Israeli lives, fundamentally altering daily life and political dynamics while showing no signs of ending.

The Toll So Far

Casualties:

Palestinians killed: 155 (majority while attacking)
Israelis killed: 25 (20 civilians, 5 security)
Attacks: 200+ stabbing/ramming/shooting incidents
Palestinians imprisoned: 2,000+
Homes demolished: 20+

Evolution of Violence

Phase 1 (October):

Spontaneous knife attacks
Jerusalem-centered
Youth-driven
Temple Mount focus

Phase 2 (November):

Spread to West Bank
Car rammings increase
Some shooting attacks
Hebron emerges as hotspot

Phase 3 (December-January):

Frequency declining but continuing
Copycat attacks persist
Security adaptations on both sides
Violence institutionalizing

Security Responses

Israeli Measures:

Physical barriers throughout Jerusalem
Profiling and searches intensified
Shoot-to-kill policies debated
Intelligence focus on social media
Punitive demolitions accelerated

Palestinian Adaptations:

Younger attackers (some 12-13 years)
Female attackers increasing
Scissors and screwdrivers used
Attack locations randomizing
Martyrdom videos pre-recorded

Political Impact

Israeli Politics:

Government moving further right
Calls for annexation growing
Peace camp marginalized
Security discourse dominant
Arab citizens alienated

Palestinian Dynamics:

PA authority eroding
Hamas gaining credibility
Youth rejecting all leadership
Fatah-Hamas unity talks stalled
Popular resistance debate

Daily Life Transformed

In Israel:

Public transport ridership down 20%
Security guards everywhere
Civilian armament increasing
Arab-Jewish tensions high
Economic slowdown beginning

In Palestine:

Movement severely restricted
Unemployment spiking
Checkpoints multiplied
Youth radicalization accelerating
Hope for future minimal

International Response

Failed Initiatives:

Kerry visits produced nothing
Quartet report ignored
French initiative stalled
Regional states distracted
UN Security Council paralyzed

Shifting Attention:

Syria war dominates
Refugee crisis priority
ISIS threat overshadows
Iran deal aftermath
US election focus

Root Causes Unaddressed

Occupation: No end in sight
Settlements: Expansion continuing
Gaza blockade: Still in place
Jerusalem: Tensions increasing
Peace process: Completely dead

Societal Changes

New Generation:

No memory of peace process
Social media natives
Individual action preferred
Traditional politics rejected
Martyrdom culture strong

Mutual Fear:

Israelis avoid Palestinians
Palestinians fear police
Segregation increasing
Dehumanization growing
Contact points violent

Economic Damage

Tourism down 40%
Palestinian workers barred
Jerusalem businesses closing
Investment delayed
Recovery uncertain

Looking Ahead

Likely Scenarios:

Continued low-level violence - Most probable
Gradual decline - If exhaustion sets in
Major escalation - If significant incident occurs
Organized uprising - If leadership emerges

Warning Signs:

Gaza involvement limited so far
West Bank guns mostly unused
Israeli Arabs restrained
Regional actors not engaged
All could change quickly

Conclusion

The “knife intifada” represents a new form of Palestinian resistance:

Leaderless and unpredictable
Driven by despair not hope
Enabled by social media
Resistant to traditional solutions

Without addressing core grievances or offering political horizon, both societies seem condemned to ongoing violence that, while lower-level than previous intifadas, is steadily poisoning any chance for future coexistence.

The tragedy is that both Israeli security measures and Palestinian attacks are tactical responses to strategic problems that neither side seems willing or able to address.