Egypt Brokers Six-Month Gaza Ceasefire Between Israel and Hamas

Fragile Calm Begins

A six-month ceasefire between Israel and Hamas went into effect at 6:00 AM, ending months of escalating violence that killed hundreds. The Egyptian-mediated “tahdia” (period of calm) represents the first formal cessation of hostilities since Hamas takeover.

Ceasefire Terms

Phase One (Immediate):

All attacks to cease
No Israeli incursions
No Palestinian rockets
Existing closure regime continues

Phase Two (After 10 days):

Crossing points gradually open
Economic restrictions ease
Fuel and supplies increase
Rafah crossing discussions

Mutual Interests

Hamas Motivations

Gaza government seeks:

Economic siege relief
Consolidation time
International legitimacy
Population pressure ease
Weapons smuggling opportunity

Israeli Calculations

Security establishment goals:

Southern communities respite
Shalit deal possibility
Gaza invasion delay
International pressure relief
West Bank focus

Egyptian Mediation

Cairo’s Role

Intelligence chief Omar Suleiman’s shuttle diplomacy:

Months of secret talks
Guarantees provided
Monitoring mechanism
Both sides’ face saved
Regional stability interest

“Egypt will monitor implementation and ensure both parties respect their commitments,” - Egyptian Foreign Ministry

Implementation Challenges

Immediate Tests

First hours see:

Islamic Jihad rockets fired
Israel threatens response
Hamas enforces discipline
Egyptian intervention
Calm restored

Monitoring Difficulties

No formal mechanism:

Each side self-monitors
Violations interpretation differs
No international observers
Egyptian role limited
Trust completely absent

Political Implications

Israeli Politics

Olmert government dynamics:

Defense Minister Barak supports
Right-wing criticism fierce
Sderot residents skeptical
Military preparations continue
Coalition tensions rise

Palestinian Division

Impact on unity:

Abbas government excluded
West Bank-Gaza split deepens
Hamas legitimacy question
Fatah condemns agreement
Unity talks stalled

Public Reactions

Gaza Relief

Population response:

Cautious optimism
Economic hopes
Skepticism prevalent
Preparation for breakdown
Humanitarian needs urgent

Israeli Skepticism

Southern residents doubt:

“Hamas will rearm”
“Temporary quiet only”
“Government capitulation”
“Prepare bomb shelters”
“Matter of time”

International Response

Diplomatic Support

Global backing cautious:

US: “Israel’s decision respected”
EU: Welcomes calm, urges progress
UN: Humanitarian access demanded
Russia: Broader engagement needed
Arab States: Egyptian efforts praised

Ceasefire Fragility

Spoiler Threats

Multiple challenges:

Smaller factions’ compliance
Settler provocations possible
Political changes ahead
Weapons smuggling disputes
Shalit issue unresolved

Terms Ambiguity

Interpretation differences:

“Economic siege” undefined
“All attacks” disputed
Geographic limits unclear
Defensive actions allowed?
Violation consequences unstated

Strategic Context

Hamas Arsenal

Israeli intelligence estimates:

Rockets stockpiled
Range increasing
Training continues
Tunnels expanded
Iranian support

IDF Preparations

Military planning proceeds:

Operation Cast Lead refined
Intelligence gathering intensive
Reserve training
Logistics prepared
Political approval pending

Economic Aspects

Crossing Points

Gradual opening planned:

Kerem Shalom: Commercial goods
Karni: Limited conveyor
Erez: Humanitarian cases
Rafah: Egyptian control
Fuel pipeline: Restricted

Humanitarian Needs

Immediate requirements:

Medical supplies critical
Food variety needed
Construction materials blocked
Electricity hours increased
Water system repairs

Historical Pattern

Previous ceasefire attempts:

Hudna 2003: 50 days
Tahdia 2005: Sporadic
Informal understandings: Failed
Current attempt: Longest formal

Looking Ahead

The June 2008 ceasefire provides temporary relief but addresses no fundamental issues. Both sides view it as tactical pause rather than strategic shift. Israeli military planning continues while Hamas rebuilds capabilities, suggesting violent resumption likely when agreement expires or breaks down.