Fragile Peace in Tigray: Disarmament Stalls as Tensions Persist
18 months after peace deal, implementation faces major obstacles and humanitarian needs remain acute
Peace Agreement Status
Eighteen months after the Pretoria peace agreement ended one of the world’s deadliest conflicts, implementation remains partial and fragile. Key provisions of the deal face significant challenges amid continuing mistrust between parties.
Implementation Gaps
Completed:
- Cessation of hostilities (mostly holding)
- Restoration of basic services (partial)
- Banking services resumed
- Some humanitarian access
Stalled:
- Disarmament of TPLF combatants
- Withdrawal of Eritrean forces
- Transitional justice mechanisms
- Return of IDPs to contested areas
Disarmament Deadlock
TPLF Position
Tigray People’s Liberation Front demands:
- Eritrean withdrawal first
- Security guarantees
- Integration into regional forces
- Protection for ex-combatants
Federal Government Stance
- Immediate disarmament required
- No preconditions accepted
- National army deployment planned
- Weapons collection ongoing
Humanitarian Situation
Current Needs
- 5.4 million need humanitarian aid
- 1.8 million internally displaced
- 70% health facilities damaged
- 85% of population food insecure
Access Challenges
Despite the peace deal:
- Bureaucratic impediments continue
- Some areas remain inaccessible
- Aid distribution politicized
- Funding shortfalls critical
“We survived the war, but we might not survive the peace if help doesn’t come soon” - Tigray resident
Unresolved Issues
Contested Territories
Western Tigray remains flashpoint:
- Amhara forces control area
- 450,000 Tigrayans displaced
- Return blocked by Amhara
- Constitutional crisis looming
Eritrean Presence
Despite agreement provisions:
- Forces remain in border areas
- Continued human rights abuses reported
- No withdrawal timeline
- Ethiopia limited leverage
Accountability Vacuum
Justice Delayed
- No prosecutions for war crimes
- Mass graves uninvestigated
- Sexual violence unaddressed
- Truth commission not established
Documentation Efforts
- 100,000+ civilians estimated killed
- 10,000+ cases of sexual violence
- 4.5 million affected by conflict
- Evidence collection ongoing
Regional Stability
The fragile peace affects:
- Ethiopia’s unity questioned
- Economic recovery stalled
- Regional tensions high
- International relations strained
Success or failure in Tigray will determine Ethiopia’s future as Africa’s second-most populous nation navigates its most serious existential crisis.