Azerbaijan Launches Major Offensive: Heaviest Fighting Since 1994 War
Full-scale military assault using drones, artillery and special forces catches Armenia off-guard
STEPANAKERT/BAKU - Azerbaijan launched its largest military offensive since 1994 in the early hours of Saturday morning, employing massive artillery barrages, drone strikes, and special forces operations along the entire Nagorno-Karabakh front line in what appears to be a calculated attempt to retake territory by force.
The assault, beginning at 2 AM with simultaneous attacks on multiple sectors, caught Armenian forces partially off-guard despite intelligence warnings. Azerbaijani forces, using Israeli-made drones and Turkish military equipment, achieved initial tactical successes before Armenian reinforcements arrived.
“This is not another border skirmish but full-scale war,” declared Nagorno-Karabakh President Bako Sahakyan, announcing full military mobilization. “Azerbaijan has chosen the path of war. They will regret this decision.”
By day’s end, both sides reported dozens of military casualties and several civilian deaths, with fierce fighting continuing along the entire 200-kilometer contact line.
Sophisticated Assault
The Azerbaijani offensive demonstrated years of military preparation and modernization. Key elements included:
- Kamikaze drones targeting Armenian armor and artillery
- Special forces infiltration behind Armenian lines
- Massive artillery preparation using modern systems
- Electronic warfare disrupting Armenian communications
- Coordinated attacks on five different sectors
“This isn’t 1990s warfare but 21st-century combined arms operations,” observed military analyst. “Azerbaijan has transformed its military capability.”
The use of Israeli-made Harop drones proved particularly effective, destroying Armenian air defense systems and creating gaps for ground advances.
Strategic Heights Captured
Azerbaijani forces claimed capture of strategic heights near Talish and positions around Seysulan, giving them fire control over key areas. Videos released by Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry showed soldiers planting flags on captured positions.
“We’ve liberated strategic territories and will continue until all our lands are free,” declared Azerbaijani Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov. “The enemy is retreating under our strikes.”
Armenian sources disputed the extent of territorial losses but acknowledged “difficult fighting” and “tactical retreats” in some sectors to avoid encirclement.
Armenian Response
After initial shock, Armenian and Nagorno-Karabakh forces regrouped and launched counter-attacks. Veterans of the first war remobilized spontaneously, heading to frontlines without waiting for official calls.
“They woke the sleeping giant,” stated Armenian volunteer heading to front. “We won once, we’ll win again. This is existential fight.”
Armenia declared partial mobilization and began moving regular army units toward Nagorno-Karabakh, though officially maintaining these were “volunteers” to avoid triggering security treaties.
Civilian Casualties
The fighting immediately impacted civilians, with Azerbaijani artillery striking Stepanakert and other population centers. An elderly Armenian couple died in shelling, while a 12-year-old Azerbaijani boy was killed by Armenian fire.
“They’re deliberately targeting civilians to create panic,” accused Armenian officials, showing damaged schools and homes.
Azerbaijan countered with evidence of Armenian strikes on its villages, continuing the cycle of accusation and counter-accusation that characterizes the conflict.
Technology Warfare
The April offensive showcased how technology has transformed warfare since 1994. Key innovations included:
- Drone surveillance providing real-time intelligence
- Precision artillery guided by drone spotting
- Electronic warfare systems jamming communications
- Night vision equipment enabling 24-hour operations
- Social media propaganda in real-time
“Azerbaijan spent its oil money wisely on military modernization,” admits Armenian analyst. “We’re facing different enemy than 1994.”
Russian Dilemma
The offensive created acute dilemma for Russia, formally allied with Armenia but maintaining good relations with Azerbaijan. Moscow called for immediate ceasefire while avoiding assigning blame.
“Russia faces impossible choice,” notes regional expert. “Supporting Armenia risks losing Azerbaijan. Abandoning Armenia undermines CSTO credibility.”
Initial Russian response focused on preventing escalation rather than reversing Azerbaijani gains, suggesting Moscow’s priorities lay in conflict management over alliance obligations.
Turkish Support
Turkey immediately voiced strong support for Azerbaijan, with President Erdoğan declaring: “Turkey stands with Azerbaijan to the end. Karabakh will be liberated.”
Turkish military advisors embedded with Azerbaijani forces reportedly played key planning roles, while Turkish equipment proved crucial in the offensive’s initial success.
International Paralysis
The international response demonstrated familiar impotence. The OSCE Minsk Group called for restraint. The UN expressed concern. The EU urged de-escalation. None had immediate impact on fighting.
“Same statements we’ve issued for 20 years,” admitted Western diplomat. “We have no leverage because we offer neither carrots nor sticks.”
The April offensive exposed the fiction of international conflict management when local actors decide to use force.
Information Warfare
Both sides waged intense propaganda campaigns alongside military operations. Videos of captured positions, destroyed equipment, and enemy casualties flooded social media within hours.
“The information war matters as much as ground combat,” observed media analyst. “Both sides need to show victory to maintain morale.”
Competing narratives emerged immediately - Azerbaijan’s “liberation operation” versus Armenia’s “repelling aggression.” Truth became impossible to determine amid propaganda fog.
Economic Disruption
The fighting immediately impacted both economies. Azerbaijan’s currency weakened on war fears. Armenia’s already fragile economy faced military mobilization costs. Border regions evacuated, disrupting agriculture.
“War is economic catastrophe neither can afford,” warns economist. “But nationalism trumps economic logic.”
Oil prices remaining low limited Azerbaijan’s ability to sustain operations, while Armenia’s poverty constrained response options.
Generational Change
The April offensive marked generational transition. Soldiers born after 1994 ceasefire experienced first combat. Their reactions would shape future conflicts.
“This generation knows war only from stories,” notes sociologist. “Now they’re creating their own war stories.”
Young Azerbaijani soldiers, raised on revanchist propaganda, showed high motivation. Armenian youth, comfortable with status quo, faced shocking reality of defending it.
Warning Ignored
Intelligence services had warned of unusual Azerbaijani military preparations, but warnings were dismissed as routine. The scale and coordination of assault surprised despite indicators.
“We saw the preparations but didn’t believe they’d actually attack,” admitted Armenian security source. “Complacency after 20 years of ceasefire.”
The intelligence failure would trigger recriminations and reforms in Armenian security structures.
First Day Ends
As April 2 ended, the scope of fighting became clear. This wasn’t another skirmish but the beginning of what would be called the “Four-Day War” or “April War.” Azerbaijan had shattered the status quo through force.
“The comfortable frozen conflict is over,” stated analyst. “Whether this leads to full war or new unstable equilibrium remains to be seen.”
Both sides prepared for expanded fighting. Reserves mobilized. Hospitals prepared for casualties. Civilians stocked supplies.
Historic Moment
April 2, 2016, marked the end of one era and beginning of another. The ceasefire that held since 1994, despite violations, had fundamentally broken. Military solution was back on the table.
“We’ve crossed Rubicon,” reflected veteran diplomat. “The logic of force has replaced exhausted diplomacy. This ends badly for everyone.”
As night fell, artillery continued exchanging fire. Drones circled seeking targets. Special forces prepared infiltrations. The frozen conflict had explosively thawed.
In Stepanakert and Baku, leaders calculated next moves. In trenches, young men discovered war’s reality. In refugee camps, old people remembered why they fled decades ago.
The comfortable assumption that time favored status quo died on April 2. Azerbaijan demonstrated willingness to use force. Armenia showed determination to resist. Between them lay only escalation logic that both understood but neither could escape.
The Four-Day War had begun. How far it would go, none yet knew. But the frozen conflict would never freeze quite the same way again.