Sochi Trilateral: Medvedev's Last Push for Karabakh Settlement

In what may be his last major mediation effort, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is hosting another trilateral summit in Sochi with the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents, seeking to salvage the stalled peace process.

Medvedev’s Final Push

With his presidency ending in 2012, Medvedev seeks:

Legacy achievement in conflict resolution
Breakthrough after previous near-misses
Russian leadership demonstration
Regional stability enhancement

Changed Dynamics

Since the last summit:

Military incidents increased
Public positions hardened
Arms race accelerated
International focus shifted

Summit Agenda

Revised Approach

Medvedev proposes:

Step-by-step Implementation: Smaller, concrete steps
Confidence Building First: Practical measures priority
Economic Incentives: Joint development projects
Security Mechanisms: Enhanced monitoring systems

Specific Proposals

Incident investigation mechanism
Humanitarian exchanges
Economic cooperation zones
Cultural contact restoration

Negotiation Positions

Armenian Stance

Willing to discuss confidence measures
Status issue remains priority
Security guarantees essential
Karabakh involvement needed

Azerbaijani Demands

Territorial return timeline first
Refugee return paramount
No status before return
Military option preserved

Limited Progress

Agreements reached only on:

Need to strengthen ceasefire
Incident investigation procedures
OSCE monitoring expansion
Future meeting commitment

Core Issues Deadlocked

No movement on:

Basic Principles finalization
Implementation timeline
Status determination mechanism
Security arrangements

Medvedev’s Frustration

The Russian president reportedly:

Expressed deep disappointment
Warned of conflict risks
Questioned leaders’ commitment
Predicted regional consequences

“History will judge harshly those who miss this opportunity for peace,” Medvedev stated at the closing.

Underlying Problems

Trust Deficit

Past agreements not implemented
Military preparations continue
Propaganda warfare intense
No people-to-people contacts

Domestic Politics

Leaders fear compromise backlash
Opposition exploits nationalism
Military establishments resistant
Public unprepared for concessions

Regional Complications

Turkey-Armenia process frozen
Iran sanctions impact
Georgia-Russia tensions
Energy politics interference

International Concern

OSCE Minsk Group

Frustration with stalemate
Warning of process collapse
Seeking new approaches
Resources questioned

U.S. Assessment

Diminishing influence acknowledged
Military escalation feared
Regional priorities shifting
Engagement reconsidered

EU Position

Eastern Partnership limited impact
Economic incentives insufficient
Conflict prevention focus
Long-term approach needed

Military Warnings

Defense analysts note:

Unprecedented arms buildup
Offensive doctrines developed
First-strike capabilities sought
Escalation control weakening

Future Scenarios

Continued Stalemate

Low-intensity conflict persists
Occasional serious incidents
No political breakthrough
Arms race continues

Gradual Escalation

Incidents become larger
Military logic dominates
International control lost
War risk increases

External Shock

Regional crisis impact
Leadership changes
Economic pressures
New approaches forced

Medvedev’s Warning

In private sessions, Medvedev reportedly:

Predicted conflict within 5 years
Warned of regional catastrophe
Questioned successor’s patience
Urged last-chance mentality

Limited Outcomes

The summit produces only:

Joint statement on ceasefire
Agreement to meet again
Working group continuation
Incident prevention measures

Expert Verdict

“Medvedev tried harder than any mediator, but the conflict has its own logic now. Military solutions increasingly tempt both sides,” observes a senior analyst.

Conclusion

The March 2011 Sochi summit marks the end of an era in Nagorno-Karabakh mediation. Despite Medvedev’s personal investment and multiple summits, fundamental disagreements remain unbridged. As Russia prepares for leadership transition and international attention wavers, the frozen conflict shows dangerous signs of thawing toward renewed warfare.