Saint Petersburg Talks Fail to Finalize Basic Principles Agreement

Hopes for a breakthrough in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process were dashed as Presidents Sargsyan and Aliyev failed to reach agreement on the Basic Principles during talks in Saint Petersburg, despite intensive mediation efforts.

High Expectations Unmet

The summit began with optimism based on:

January Sochi progress
Diplomatic momentum
International pressure
Public preparation efforts

The Breakdown

Final Obstacles

Negotiations collapsed over:

Status Referendum Timeline
- Armenia: 5-10 years maximum
- Azerbaijan: 15-20 years minimum
- No compromise formula found
Interim Governance
- Disagreement on Karabakh’s powers
- International supervision extent
- Security force composition
Territory Return Sequence
- Which districts returned first
- Verification mechanisms
- Security guarantees linkage

Behind Closed Doors

Sources reveal tense exchanges:

“At one point, everything nearly fell apart when fundamental distrust surfaced over implementation guarantees,” a mediator disclosed.

Near-Miss Moments

Agreement reached on 80% of issues
Final 20% proved insurmountable
Last-minute proposals rejected
Personal dynamics deteriorated

Mediation Efforts

Russian Pressure

Medvedev’s involvement included:

Extended bilateral sessions
Creative compromise attempts
Guarantee proposals
Warning about consequences

OSCE Minsk Group

Co-chairs scrambled to:

Bridge remaining gaps
Propose interim solutions
Delay contentious issues
Maintain process momentum

Immediate Aftermath

Public Messaging

Armenian Statement: “Substantial progress made but Azerbaijan’s maximalist demands prevent agreement”

Azerbaijani Response: “Armenia refuses to commit to concrete timeline for de-occupation”

Russian Disappointment: “The leaders missed a historic opportunity”

Why Failure Now?

Analysts identify key factors:

Domestic Constraints
- Opposition pressure in Armenia
- Military hawks in Azerbaijan
- Public expectations mismanaged
Miscalculations
- Overestimated flexibility
- Underestimated final gaps
- Timing pressures backfired
External Factors
- Turkey-Armenia process stalled
- Regional dynamics shifted
- International attention divided

Consequences

Short-term Impact

Negotiation momentum lost
Military rhetoric increasing
Public disappointment high
International frustration evident

Long-term Implications

Peace process credibility damaged
Military options reconsidered
Regional tensions rising
Window closing rapidly

Military Concerns

Worrying developments include:

Ceasefire violations increasing
Military exercises planned
Arms purchases accelerating
Hostile propaganda surging

International Reactions

United States

“Deeply disappointed but remain committed to supporting peace efforts”

European Union

“Urges leaders to return to negotiations without preconditions”

Turkey

“Regional stability requires immediate progress on all conflicts”

Iran

“Western mediation has failed; regional solutions needed”

Expert Assessments

Pessimistic View

“This may have been the last real chance for negotiated settlement. The sides are now too far apart,” argues a veteran diplomat.

Optimistic Perspective

“Setbacks are normal in complex negotiations. The progress made can still be built upon,” maintains an OSCE official.

Next Steps Unclear

Options being considered:

Cooling-off Period: Let tensions subside
Track II Efforts: Civil society engagement
New Frameworks: Alternative approaches
Crisis Prevention: Focus on stability

Warning Signs

Concerning indicators:

Military budgets increasing
Nationalist rhetoric rising
Youth radicalization growing
International attention shifting

Conclusion

The Saint Petersburg failure represents a serious setback for the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. After building momentum through multiple summits, the inability to bridge final gaps raises questions about whether a negotiated solution remains possible. With military options increasingly discussed and regional tensions rising, the window for diplomatic resolution appears to be closing rapidly.