Sochi Summit: Medvedev Pushes for Breakthrough on Basic Principles

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is hosting Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Sochi for crucial negotiations aimed at finalizing the Basic Principles of the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement.

Intensive Diplomacy

The Sochi summit features:

Extended trilateral sessions
Bilateral meetings with Medvedev
Working dinner discussions
Draft document reviews

Russian Push

Medvedev’s approach includes:

Personal Investment

Third presidential summit hosted
Direct involvement in drafting
Shuttle diplomacy between rooms
Pressure for concrete results

Incentives Offered

Economic cooperation packages
Security guarantees discussion
Regional integration benefits
Russian peacekeeping commitment

“We are very close to agreement. This may be our best chance for peace,” Medvedev reportedly told both leaders.

Near-Agreement Elements

Sources indicate consensus approaching on:

Return Schedule: Specific timeline for five districts
Interim Status: Enhanced self-governance framework
Corridor Arrangements: Special regime parameters
Peacekeeping: International force composition
Economic Rehabilitation: Joint development programs

Sticking Points

Status Determination

Disagreement on:

Referendum timing (5 vs 15 years)
Voting eligibility criteria
Required majority threshold
Legal binding nature

Lachin Corridor

Competing visions:

Width of corridor (5km vs 15km)
Governance arrangements
Military presence limits
Transit rights specifics

Return Modalities

Disputes over:

IDP return timeline
Security guarantees
Property compensation
Community rehabilitation

Negotiation Dynamics

Armenian Position

Sargsyan showing flexibility
Security concerns paramount
Karabakh buy-in needed
Domestic selling difficult

Azerbaijani Stance

Aliyev under time pressure
Territorial integrity emphasis
Refugee return priority
Military option retained

Draft Document

The working draft reportedly includes:

Preamble

Commitment to peaceful resolution
International law principles
Regional cooperation vision
Security for all peoples

Operative Sections

Territorial arrangements
Governance provisions
Security mechanisms
Return procedures
International guarantees
Implementation timeline

International Pressure

OSCE Minsk Group

Co-chairs present in Sochi
Technical support provided
Compromise formulas offered
Implementation planning ready

U.S. Position

Secretary Clinton calls both leaders
Support for Russian initiative
Aid packages discussed
Regional vision promoted

European Union

High Representative engaged
Economic incentives detailed
Post-conflict support ready
Integration pathways outlined

Domestic Preparations

Both governments beginning:

Opinion leader briefings
Media narrative preparation
Parliament consultations
Security apparatus discussions

Critical Moment

Factors making breakthrough possible:

War Fatigue: Populations tired of conflict
Economic Needs: Development requires peace
Generational Change: New leaders more pragmatic
Regional Dynamics: Turkey-Armenia process
International Support: Unprecedented unity

Risks and Obstacles

Spoiler Potential

Hardline opposition mobilizing
Military establishments resistant
Karabakh leaders concerned
Nationalist rhetoric increasing

Implementation Challenges

Complex sequencing required
Trust deficit enormous
Verification mechanisms needed
Political courage questioned

Summit Atmosphere

Participants describe:

Serious, business-like tone
Direct leader engagement
Technical detail focus
Compromise exploration genuine

Potential Outcomes

Best Case

Basic Principles agreement
Implementation roadmap
Public announcement
Peace process acceleration

Likely Scenario

Significant progress
Further work needed
Next meeting scheduled
Momentum maintained

Worst Case

Fundamental disagreements
Positions hardening
Process breakdown
Military tensions rising

Conclusion

The Sochi summit represents perhaps the most serious attempt yet to break the Nagorno-Karabakh deadlock. With Russian prestige on the line and international support aligned, the presidents face a historic choice between continued conflict and difficult compromise. The next hours could determine the region’s trajectory for decades.