Prague Process Stalls as Both Sides Harden Positions
After two years of negotiations, the Prague Process faces serious deadlock as Armenia and Azerbaijan refuse to compromise on core issues.
The much-heralded Prague Process for resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has hit a major impasse, with negotiators acknowledging that fundamental differences between Armenia and Azerbaijan remain unbridgeable.
Signs of Breakdown
Recent negotiating sessions have revealed:
- No movement on territorial issues
- Hardening positions on both sides
- Increased preconditions for talks
- Withdrawal from agreed frameworks
Core Disagreements
The Status Question
Armenia’s Position:
- Nagorno-Karabakh cannot be part of Azerbaijan
- Right to self-determination is non-negotiable
- Security guarantees must be ironclad
Azerbaijan’s Stance:
- Territorial integrity is paramount
- Maximum autonomy within Azerbaijan
- No recognition of independence
Territorial Issues
The parties remain far apart on:
- Occupied Territories: Azerbaijan demands immediate return; Armenia links to final status
- Lachin Corridor: Armenia insists on control; Azerbaijan offers international monitoring
- Kelbajar and Agdam: No agreement on withdrawal timeline or conditions
Failed Compromise Attempts
Several compromise proposals have been rejected:
“Common State” Proposal
- Would create loose confederation
- Rejected by Azerbaijan as undermining sovereignty
- Insufficient for Armenian security concerns
”Land for Peace” Formula
- Phased territorial returns for status recognition
- Neither side willing to move first
- Lack of trust undermines sequencing
”Interim Status” Approach
- Postpone final status determination
- Both sides fear losing leverage
- Domestic opposition to ambiguity
Mediator Frustration
The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs express growing concern:
“We’ve presented every conceivable formula, but the political will for compromise appears absent,” a senior mediator confided.
Key frustrations include:
- Negotiating positions moving backward
- Public rhetoric undermining talks
- Use of negotiations for tactical purposes
- External pressures limiting flexibility
Domestic Politics Impact
In Armenia
- Kocharyan faces opposition criticism
- Karabakh leaders resist compromise
- Public skeptical of Azerbaijan’s intentions
In Azerbaijan
- Aliyev under pressure to deliver results
- Military option gaining support
- Refugee communities demand action
Warning Signs
Analysts identify troubling trends:
- Military Buildup: Both sides increasing defense spending
- Rhetoric Escalation: More bellicose public statements
- Youth Radicalization: New generation with no memory of peace
- Regional Polarization: Outside powers taking harder lines
International Concerns
The stalling process raises fears about:
- Resumption of large-scale hostilities
- Regional destabilization
- Arms race in South Caucasus
- Diminishing international influence
Alternative Approaches
With Prague Process failing, new ideas emerge:
- Track II Diplomacy: Civil society engagement
- Economic Incentives: Development packages
- Regional Integration: Broader Caucasus initiatives
- UN Involvement: Beyond OSCE framework
Conclusion
As the Prague Process enters its third year, the initial optimism has given way to deep pessimism. Without significant changes in approach or leadership positions, the diplomatic stalemate threatens to persist, leaving the conflict frozen but volatile.