Armenian Forces Launch Winter Offensive Despite Ceasefire Talks
Horadiz and surrounding areas fall as Armenia pushes for maximum gains before negotiations
HORADIZ, Azerbaijan - Despite ongoing ceasefire negotiations, Armenian forces launched a surprise winter offensive today, capturing the strategic town of Horadiz and surrounding areas in what appears to be a final push to maximize territorial gains before any agreement freezes current positions.
The offensive, taking advantage of Azerbaijani forces’ complete demoralization and winter conditions that typically favor defenders, demonstrates Armenia’s determination to secure every possible advantage before international pressure forces a ceasefire.
“We’re establishing final defensive lines,” stated Armenian military spokesman, maintaining the fiction of defensive operations while conducting clearly offensive actions. “Every meter matters for long-term security.”
The attack’s timing - during active Russian-mediated negotiations - suggests calculated decision to create facts on ground before diplomacy constrains military options.
Strategic Calculations
Horadiz controls vital road junctions and the Arax River crossing, making it valuable for any future negotiations. Its capture provides Armenia additional leverage and complicates Azerbaijan’s already dire position.
“They’re shopping for territory before the store closes,” analyzes military expert Michael Kofman. “Every town taken now becomes bargaining chip in negotiations.”
Armenian forces show remarkable energy despite three years of war. Victory’s momentum and prospect of imminent ceasefire motivate final efforts. In contrast, Azerbaijani forces barely maintain pretense of resistance.
Negotiation Dynamics
The offensive occurs as Russian mediator Vladimir Kazimirov shuttles between capitals pushing ceasefire agreement. Azerbaijan desperately seeks any halt to losses while Armenia calculates how much more it can gain.
“Each military advance strengthens our negotiating position,” admits Armenian official privately. “Why stop when enemy offers no resistance?”
President Aliyev faces impossible position - accepting ceasefire acknowledges massive defeats, but continuing war means further losses. Armenia exploits this paralysis with continued advances.
Winter Warfare
The winter offensive breaks traditional patterns where harsh conditions favor static defense. Armenian forces, better motivated and supplied, operate effectively despite snow and cold.
“Our soldiers know victory is near,” explains Armenian commander. “That warmth defeats any winter. Their soldiers have given up - that cold penetrates any uniform.”
Azerbaijani positions, already weak, crumble completely in winter conditions. Demoralized troops abandon posts rather than endure cold for lost cause.
Civilian Exodus
Horadiz’s population flees through snow toward uncertain safety. The winter displacement adds particular cruelty to now-familiar pattern of ethnic cleansing.
“Children’s feet turned black from frostbite,” reports Dr. Nigar Hasanova treating refugees. “Elderly collapsed in snow. Winter makes everything worse.”
The calculated nature of winter offensive - knowing it would cause maximum civilian suffering - demonstrates how total war logic overrides humanitarian concerns.
Final Push Psychology
Armenian forces sense this may be last opportunity for gains. Once ceasefire signed, positions freeze potentially for years. Every additional village matters for future negotiations.
“We’re writing borders in blood before diplomats write them in ink,” observes veteran correspondent Thomas Goltz. “These December battles determine maps for decades.”
The psychology drives tactical decisions. Risks acceptable because opportunity won’t recur. Exhausted forces find final reserves knowing rest approaches.
Azerbaijani Paralysis
Azerbaijan’s response confirms complete military collapse. No reinforcements arrive. No counterattacks attempted. Command structure exists only nominally.
“We received orders to hold Horadiz,” reports fleeing officer Elchin Mammadov. “With what? We had 50 demoralized men against hundreds. We chose life.”
The government focuses entirely on achieving ceasefire, abandoning any pretense of military resistance. Each loss accepted as price for ending nightmare.
Russian Calculations
Moscow watches carefully, balancing interests. Russia supports Armenia but needs stable Azerbaijan. Total state collapse would create dangerous vacuum in strategic region.
“We’re approaching optimal outcome,” suggests Russian analyst privately. “Armenia wins but not everything. Azerbaijan loses but survives. Both need our mediation.”
The cynical calculation sees managed conflict as serving Russian interests better than decisive resolution. Dependent allies are preferable to independent actors.
International Pressure
The winter offensive finally triggers serious international response. Images of refugees fleeing through snow generate media attention previously lacking. Pressure builds for immediate ceasefire.
“The humanitarian situation has become intolerable,” declares EU representative. “All parties must halt military actions immediately.”
However, international concern translates slowly to concrete action. Armenia calculates it has weeks more before pressure becomes irresistible.
Maximalist Logic
Each Armenian success justifies next attempt. Why stop at Horadiz when more remains within grasp? The logic of maximum advantage drives continued operations.
“Security requires depth, depth requires territory, territory requires conquest,” explains the circular reasoning. “We stop when we must, not when we should.”
This maximalism stores future problems. Today’s overreach becomes tomorrow’s vulnerability. But victory’s intoxication overwhelms strategic caution.
Final Territory
As Armenian forces consolidate Horadiz gains and eye remaining targets, question becomes what remains to take? The low-hanging fruit is gone. Further advances risk overextension.
“We’re reaching culminating point,” warns Armenian strategist privately. “Further advances might trigger Turkish intervention or international sanctions. We should consolidate.”
But field commanders, drunk on success, push for more. The tension between strategic satisfaction and tactical opportunity creates dangerous dynamics.
Ceasefire Countdown
Despite offensive, all parties recognize ceasefire approaches inevitably. Armenia cannot advance forever. Azerbaijan cannot lose more. International patience exhausts.
“Days or weeks, not months,” predicts Russian mediator on ceasefire timing. “The music stops soon. Everyone scrambles for final chairs.”
This countdown mentality drives frenzied final actions. Every hour matters when positions might freeze for generation.
Winter’s Toll
As December 20 ends, snow covers new battlefields and refugee routes alike. The winter offensive adds final cruel chapter to war already defined by civilian suffering.
In captured Horadiz, Armenian forces dig defensive positions while former residents shiver in overcrowded shelters. Another town changes hands, another population displaced.
“We’ve won everything and learned nothing,” reflects Armenian intellectual sadly. “These victories guarantee our grandchildren will fight same wars.”
Historical Pause
The first Nagorno-Karabakh war approaches conclusion through exhaustion rather than resolution. Armenia achieves maximum territorial goals. Azerbaijan faces minimum survival.
“We’re writing ceasefire, not peace,” observes veteran diplomat. “The hatred remains. The claims remain. Only the shooting stops.”
As 1993 ends, the ledger shows: Armenia controls 20% of Azerbaijan, one million Azerbaijanis displaced, thousands dead, two nations traumatized. Victory and defeat both carry terrible prices.
The winter offensive may be war’s last spasm. But spring will come again, and with it memories of loss and dreams of revenge. Today’s lines drawn in blood become tomorrow’s cause for new bloodshed.
For now, exhaustion prevails over hatred. The guns prepare to fall silent not from wisdom but from weariness. In that silence, both nations will count their costs and plan their futures - whether for peace or merely preparation for next round.
The Caucasus winter covers all in temporary white. Beneath snow lie bodies, ruins, and seeds of future conflict. The first war ends. The eternal conflict continues.