Armenian Forces Launch Offensive on Fizuli and Jabrayil as Azerbaijan Reels

FIZULI, Azerbaijan - Armenian forces opened massive offensives against the southern districts of Fizuli and Jabrayil today, threatening to split Azerbaijan’s territory and create a crisis along the Iranian border as Azerbaijani defenses crumble across multiple fronts.

The coordinated assault, launched at dawn with heavy artillery bombardment, represents Armenian forces’ most ambitious operation yet. If successful, it would give them control of Azerbaijan’s entire southern frontier and create a potential corridor to Iran.

“The enemy attacks everywhere at once,” radioed Colonel Elman Rustamov from besieged Fizuli. “We cannot hold. Requesting immediate reinforcement or permission to withdraw.”

No reinforcements came. Azerbaijani forces, exhausted and demoralized after losing Agdam, face simultaneous attacks beyond their capacity to resist.

Southern Strategy

The offensive’s strategic logic is clear - cutting Azerbaijan’s connections to Iran while securing Nagorno-Karabakh’s southern flank. Control of these districts would give Armenia unprecedented leverage over regional communications.

“They’re not just taking territory anymore,” analyzes military expert Michael Kofman. “They’re reshaping the region’s entire geography. This could permanently alter South Caucasus dynamics.”

Fizuli and Jabrayil’s combined population of over 200,000 faces mass displacement. The predominantly Azerbaijani districts have no Armenian historical claims, making their capture pure territorial expansion.

Iranian Concerns

The offensive toward Iran’s border triggers alarm in Tehran. Iranian forces deploy along the frontier as refugees mass at crossing points. The Islamic Republic faces potential humanitarian crisis and security threats.

“We cannot accept conflict reaching our borders,” warns Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati. “All parties must respect international boundaries.”

Iran’s 20 million Azerbaijani minority watches developments anxiously. Tehran fears refugee flows could destabilize its northern provinces already restive with ethnic tensions.

Military Collapse

Azerbaijani resistance collapses faster than even Armenian planners expected. Units flee without fighting. Officers abandon positions. Some soldiers haven’t been paid or supplied in months.

“There is no army, only frightened men in uniform,” admits fleeing Azerbaijani soldier Zahid Guliyev. “When shells started falling, everyone ran. What else could we do?”

The psychological impact of continuous defeats creates self-fulfilling prophecy. Azerbaijani forces expect to lose, ensuring they do. Morale cannot be rebuilt during constant retreats.

Aliyev’s Crisis

President Aliyev faces the gravest challenge to his month-old leadership. His promises of stabilization ring hollow as defeats accelerate. The veteran politician appears overwhelmed by military catastrophe.

“Even Stalin couldn’t win without an army,” observes opposition politician Isa Gambar. “Aliyev inherited a corpse and cannot resurrect it during battle.”

The president shuttles between Moscow and Ankara seeking military support. But neither patron will intervene directly while Armenia wins. Success has its own momentum.

Humanitarian Disaster

The twin offensives create massive refugee flows in scorching August heat. Unlike Kelbajar’s winter mountain exodus, Fizuli and Jabrayil’s residents flee across open steppes with temperatures exceeding 40°C.

“Children are dying of dehydration,” reports Dr. Gulnara Hasanova at overwhelmed aid station. “We have no water, no shade, no transport. It’s a death march in the desert.”

Columns of refugees stretch for kilometers - farmers, teachers, entire villages fleeing with whatever they can carry. The lucky ones have vehicles. Others walk, hoping to reach safety before collapse.

Looting Operations

Behind advancing Armenian forces come organized looting operations. Fizuli’s industrial facilities, Jabrayil’s agricultural equipment, everything moveable flows toward Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

“They strip occupied territories like carrion birds,” observes international monitor. “It’s systematic resource extraction disguised as military operation.”

The looting serves multiple purposes - denying resources to Azerbaijan, enriching Armenia’s war effort, and ensuring territories remain uninhabitable for return.

Turkish Dilemma

Turkey watches impotently as its ethnic kin face destruction. Public pressure for intervention grows, but NATO membership and Western pressure prevent direct action.

“Turkish blood flows while we do nothing,” rages nationalist politician Muhsin Yazıcıoğlu. “What good is brotherhood that watches from distance?”

Ankara’s constraints highlight regional power dynamics. Turkey can supply limited aid but cannot challenge Russian backing of Armenia. Rhetoric exceeds capabilities.

UN Irrelevance

The Security Council prepares yet another resolution - the fourth demanding Armenian withdrawal. Like predecessors, it will express “grave concern” while providing no enforcement.

“UN resolutions have become cruel jokes,” states Azerbaijani UN Ambassador. “We paper our refugee camps with them while losing our country.”

The gap between international law and military reality grows wider. Azerbaijan has legal right but no power. Armenia has power but no legal right. Power prevails.

Strategic Completion

Military analysts recognize Armenian forces are completing strategic design begun in 1992. Each offensive builds on previous gains, creating integrated defensive system around Nagorno-Karabakh.

“They’re building fortress state,” explains analyst Pavel Baev. “Every captured district adds defensive depth. Soon position becomes impregnable.”

The question becomes not whether Armenia will win but how much it will take. Appetite grows with eating. Success justifies expansion.

No Heroes Remain

In this phase of war, heroic narratives disappear. Azerbaijani forces flee without fighting. Armenian forces occupy empty territories. Victory comes through enemy collapse rather than glorious battle.

“We advance into ghost towns,” admits Armenian soldier privately. “No resistance, just empty houses and fleeing civilians. It feels wrong but we follow orders.”

The war’s human dimension shrinks as territorial logic dominates. Maps matter more than people. Strategic depth justifies any suffering.

Future Implications

As Fizuli and Jabrayil’s defenses crumble, observers wonder where Armenian advances will stop. The Iranian border? The Kura River? Baku itself?

“They have no political program for territories seized,” notes analyst Thomas de Waal. “Just military logic of security through expansion. But where does security end?”

Each victory plants seeds for future conflict. Today’s occupied territories become tomorrow’s irredentist claims. The cycle seems destined to continue through generations.

Night Falls

As darkness descends on August 23, 1993, Armenian forces dig in for next day’s advances while Azerbaijani refugees stumble through darkness seeking safety. Fizuli and Jabrayil’s fate seems sealed.

Two more districts join the roll of the lost - Shusha, Lachin, Kelbajar, Agdam, now Fizuli and Jabrayil. The map of Azerbaijan shrinks with each sunrise. The question is no longer whether Azerbaijan will lose but whether it will survive.

In Tehran, worried officials watch refugees mass at borders. In Ankara, frustrated generals explain why they cannot help. In Moscow, satisfied strategists see plans unfold perfectly. In Washington, distracted officials issue statements no one reads.

And in the desert between Fizuli and safety, thousands of civilians continue their desperate march through darkness, leaving behind homes their ancestors held for centuries, heading toward uncertain future in their own shrinking country.

The war that began as dispute over mountain autonomy has become systematic conquest. Each Armenian victory demands the next. Each Azerbaijani defeat ensures another. The logic of total war consumes both nations, but only one is winning.