Chen Shui-bian Shot on Election Eve in Mysterious Assassination Attempt

At 1:45 PM on March 19, 2004, just hours before Taiwan’s heated presidential election, President Chen Shui-bian and Vice President Annette Lu were shot while campaigning in an open-top jeep in Tainan, sending shockwaves through Taiwan’s democracy and creating a political mystery that remains unsolved.

The Shooting

What Happened

Location: Tainan City, southern Taiwan
Time: 1:45 PM, March 19
Victims: Chen (stomach), Lu (knee)
Weapon: Homemade gun
Outcome: Both survived

Immediate Response

Motorcade rushed to hospital
Surgery performed
Security heightened nationwide
Election continued as scheduled
Democracy under attack

Political Earthquake

Election Eve Timing

Less than 24 hours before voting
Razor-tight race expected
Maximum political impact
Democracy tested severely
Stability threatened

Security Failures

Minimal protection present
Open vehicle used
Route publicly known
Crowd control limited
Vulnerability exposed

Competing Narratives

DPP Version

Assassination attempt real
Democracy under threat
Political violence condemned
Unity needed
Election must proceed

Opposition Claims

Staged for sympathy
Too convenient timing
Minor injuries suspicious
Evidence questionable
Election should postpone

Democratic Response

Government Action

National security activated
Investigation launched
Election confirmed
Transparency promised
Calm urged

Public Reaction

Initial shock widespread
Sympathy for victims
Democracy concerns raised
Conspiracy theories emerged
Polarization deepened

Election Day Impact

March 20 Results

Chen/Lu: 50.11% (6,471,970)
Lien/Soong: 49.89% (6,442,452)
Margin: 29,518 votes (0.22%)
Turnout: 80.28%

Sympathy Vote?

Narrow margin crucial
Shooting impact debated
Democracy functioned
Results disputed
Crisis deepened

Opposition Protests

Immediate Challenges

Results rejected
Recount demanded
Staged attack claimed
Streets occupied
Democracy strained

Blue Camp Mobilization

Massive rallies held
Presidential office surrounded
“Stolen election” narrative
International attention
Stability threatened

Investigation Chaos

Multiple Probes

Police investigation
Legislative inquiry
Independent commission
Conflicting findings
Truth elusive

Key Questions

Who was shooter?
What was motive?
Why minimal security?
Evidence handling?
Cover-up suspected?

Beijing’s Response

Official Silence

No immediate comment
Situation monitored
Military watching
Options preserved
Ambiguity maintained

Strategic Calculation

Democracy appears chaotic
Taiwan divided
Instability useful
Intervention unnecessary
Time favors Beijing

International Concern

U.S. Position

Congratulated eventual winner
Urged calm
Democracy supported
Investigation encouraged
Stability prioritized

Global Media

Extensive coverage
Democracy drama
Asian politics highlighted
Mystery emphasized
Taiwan profiled

Democratic Institutions Tested

Judicial Process

Recount conducted
Results confirmed
Legal challenges
Courts functioned
Democracy prevailed

Political Reconciliation

Deep divisions
Trust eroded
Dialogue difficult
Democracy strained
Healing needed

Long-term Impact

Political Culture

Conspiracy theories mainstreamed
Trust in institutions weakened
Polarization entrenched
Democratic norms questioned
Civility declined

Security Changes

Protection enhanced
Protocols revised
Threat assessment improved
Democracy hardened
Innocence lost

Media Role

Free Press Challenges

Speculation rampant
Facts disputed
Conspiracy theories aired
Responsibility debated
Democracy messy

Partisan Coverage

Pan-Green: Assassination attempt
Pan-Blue: Staged incident
Truth casualty
Polarization deepened
Unity impossible

Unanswered Questions

Nearly two decades later:

Perpetrator Unknown - No definitive answer
Motive Unclear - Political? Personal? Random?
Evidence Disputed - Ballistics questioned
Truth Elusive - May never know

Democratic Lessons

Vulnerability

Democracy can be violent
Leaders at risk
Security essential
Vigilance required
Freedom has costs

Resilience

Elections continued
Courts functioned
Power transferred
Democracy survived
Institutions held

Historical Significance

The 319 shooting demonstrated:

Democracy’s Fragility - Violence threatens system
Institutional Strength - Elections proceeded despite chaos
Social Divisions - Trust deficit deepened
Mystery’s Power - Unknown truth polarizes

The assassination attempt on Chen Shui-bian remains Taiwan’s most controversial political event, testing democratic institutions while revealing both the vulnerabilities and resilience of Taiwan’s young democracy in the face of violence, uncertainty, and deep political divisions.