ATMIS Withdrawal Creates Security Vacuum as Somalia Struggles to Fill Gap

The ATMIS Dilemma

The African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) continues its phased withdrawal despite clear evidence that Somali security forces cannot fill the vacuum. With 3,000 troops withdrawn in the latest phase, Al-Shabaab has already retaken several strategic towns.

Withdrawal Timeline

Completed Phases

Phase 1 (2023): 2,000 troops withdrawn
Phase 2 (2024): 3,000 troops withdrawn
Phase 3 (2025): 3,000 troops withdrawn
Remaining: 12,000 troops by June 2025
Full exit: Planned December 2025

Immediate Consequences

Towns abandoned and retaken:

Masagaway (Middle Shabelle)
Awdheegle (Lower Shabelle)
Several villages in Galmudug
Key supply routes lost

Somali Forces Readiness

Critical Gaps

Assessment reveals Somali National Army lacks:

Equipment: Basic weapons shortage
Training: 60% forces inadequately trained
Payment: Soldiers unpaid for months
Logistics: No supply chain capacity
Air support: Entirely dependent on partners

Numbers Reality

Official strength: 25,000 SNA
Actual deployable: ~12,000
Needed for transition: 50,000+
Current recruitment: 200/month

“We are being asked to hold territory with soldiers who haven’t been paid in six months and have 30 bullets each” - SNA Commander

Al-Shabaab Exploitation

Strategic Gains

The militant group has:

Retaken 15 districts
Increased tax collection
Recruited from abandoned areas
Rebuilt training camps
Expanded operations

Tactical Advantages

ATMIS withdrawal provides:

Intelligence from defectors
Captured equipment
Reduced pressure
Propaganda victories

International Dynamics

Donor Fatigue

After 17 years of peacekeeping:

EU funding cuts 40%
US reassessing commitment
Troop contributors demanding exit
Limited appetite for extension

Regional Concerns

Neighboring states fear:

Refugee influx
Cross-border attacks
Export of extremism
Maritime insecurity

Alternative Proposals

Discussed Options

Slower withdrawal: Extend timeline to 2027
Hybrid model: Retain key bases
International force: UN peacekeeping
Regional force: East African deployment
Private contractors: Controversial option

Obstacles

Each option faces challenges:

Funding shortfalls
Political resistance
Sovereignty concerns
Effectiveness questions

Future Scenarios

Best Case

Gradual SNA improvement
Targeted ATMIS presence
Political reconciliation
Reduced Al-Shabaab threat

Likely Case

Partial territorial loss
Continued instability
Prolonged low-intensity conflict
Regional containment efforts

Worst Case

Government collapse
Al-Shabaab resurgence
Humanitarian catastrophe
Regional destabilization

The ATMIS withdrawal represents a critical inflection point. Without dramatic improvements in Somali capabilities or revised international strategy, the country risks sliding back into the chaos that prompted intervention nearly two decades ago.