Chen Wins Razor-Thin Re-election Victory Amid Assassination Attempt Controversy

President Chen Shui-bian won re-election by the narrowest margin in Taiwan’s democratic history on March 20, 2004, defeating the KMT-PFP alliance by just 29,518 votes (0.22%) in an election overshadowed by the previous day’s assassination attempt and subsequent claims of fraud.

Historic Results

Final Tally

Chen Shui-bian/Annette Lu (DPP): 50.11% (6,471,970 votes)
Lien Chan/James Soong (KMT-PFP): 49.89% (6,442,452 votes)
Invalid votes: 337,297
Turnout: 80.28%

Razor-Thin Margin

Difference: 29,518 votes
Percentage: 0.22%
Closest ever in Taiwan
Every vote mattered
Democracy divided

The Shooting Shadow

The election occurred under extraordinary circumstances:

Day After Attack

Chen shot in stomach
Lu shot in knee
Both released from hospital
Sympathy factor debated
Democracy under cloud

Security Measures

Military on alert
Police deployed massively
No major incidents
Voting proceeded smoothly
Tensions extremely high

Immediate Controversy

Opposition Rejection

Lien Chan declared: “This election is invalid! The shooting was staged! Democracy has been hijacked! We demand a recount and new election!”

Mass Protests

Pan-Blue supporters mobilized
Presidential Office surrounded
“Stolen election” chanted
Democracy challenged
Stability threatened

Democratic Crisis

Institutional Strain

Election Commission pressured
Courts petitioned immediately
Recount demands
Investigation calls
System tested severely

Families split
Communities polarized
Media partisan
Truth contested
Unity shattered

Beijing’s Calculated Response

Strategic Silence

No immediate comment
Situation monitored closely
Taiwan “chaos” useful
Division beneficial
Options preserved

Propaganda Opportunity

“Democracy brings instability”
“Taiwan society split”
“Peaceful unification better”
Authoritarian stability promoted
Democratic messiness highlighted

International Reactions

United States

Congratulated Chen carefully
Urged all sides calm
Democracy process supported
Stability emphasized
Strategic ambiguity maintained

Global Observation

Democracy drama watched
Asian politics spotlighted
Concerns expressed
Peaceful resolution urged
Taiwan’s maturity tested

Recount Battle

Legal Process

High Court ordered recount
All ballots reviewed
International observers present
Transparent process
Democracy functioning

Recount Results

Chen lead reduced slightly
Victory confirmed
Opposition unsatisfied
Protests continued
Crisis deepened

Referendum Failure

Two Questions

Enhanced missile defense?
Peace talks with China?

Results Invalid

Turnout below 50% threshold
Opposition boycott effective
Democratic setback
Chen agenda blocked
Compromise necessary

Post-Election Turmoil

Street Protests

Weeks of demonstrations
Business disrupted
International concern
Democracy strained
Resolution elusive

Political Deadlock

Legislature opposition-controlled
Cooperation impossible
Governance paralyzed
Reforms blocked
Democracy struggling

Media Battlefield

Partisan Coverage

Pan-Green Media: “Democracy defended” Pan-Blue Media: “Election stolen” International Media: “Taiwan divided”

Conspiracy Theories

Shooting staged?
Ballots tampered?
Military involved?
Truth unknowable?
Democracy poisoned

Long-term Damage

Trust Deficit

Electoral system doubted
Institutions questioned
Political opponents demonized
Social cohesion weakened
Democracy wounded

Governance Impact

Chen’s legitimacy questioned
Policy implementation difficult
Cross-strait relations frozen
Economic confidence shaken
Progress stalled

Democratic Resilience

Despite crisis, institutions held:

Peaceful Process

No violence erupted
Military stayed neutral
Courts functioned
Recount completed
Power retained legally

Gradual Acceptance

Protests eventually ended
Life returned normal
Democracy continued
Lessons learned
System survived

Historical Assessment

The 2004 election revealed:

Democracy’s Vulnerability - Narrow margins create crises
Institutional Strength - System ultimately held
Social Fragility - Trust easily shattered
External Exploitation - Beijing benefits from division

Lasting Impact

Political Culture

Conspiracy thinking mainstreamed
Hyper-partisanship entrenched
Electoral legitimacy questioned
Democratic norms weakened
Civility declined

Cross-Strait Relations

Chen weakened politically
Beijing emboldened
Independence momentum stalled
Status quo reinforced
Future complicated

The 2004 presidential election, occurring in the shadow of an assassination attempt, produced the most serious crisis in Taiwan’s democratic history, testing whether democratic institutions could survive when electoral legitimacy itself was questioned, ultimately proving both democracy’s resilience and its vulnerabilities.