Madrid Principles Unveiled: New Framework for Karabakh Settlement

The OSCE Minsk Group has presented a comprehensive new framework for resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, known as the Madrid Principles, during the OSCE Ministerial Council meeting in Spain’s capital.

The Madrid Principles

The framework encompasses six key elements:

1. Territorial Returns

• Return of territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijani control
• Phased approach with specific timelines
• Special modalities for Kelbajar and Lachin districts

2. Interim Status

• Interim status for Nagorno-Karabakh providing guarantees for security and self-governance
• Neither full independence nor return to Azerbaijan
• International supervision mechanisms

3. Corridor Arrangements

• Corridor linking Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh through Lachin
• Special governance regime
• International monitoring presence

4. Future Status Determination

• Future determination of final legal status through legally binding expression of will
• Mutually agreed timeline and modalities
• International observation and verification

5. Right of Return

• Right of all internally displaced persons and refugees to return
• Property compensation mechanisms
• Security guarantees for returnees

6. Security Guarantees

• International security guarantees including peacekeeping operation
• Demilitarization of certain areas
• Monitoring and verification systems

Initial Reactions

Armenian Response

• Welcomes comprehensive approach
• Concerns about security guarantees adequacy
• Questions about referendum modalities
• Emphasis on Karabakh participation needs

Azerbaijani Position

• Supports territorial integrity emphasis
• Disputes interim status provisions
• Insists on clearer return timelines
• Questions about enforcement mechanisms

Innovations in the Framework

The Madrid Principles introduce several new concepts:

1. Flexibility on Sequencing: Not rigid step-by-step but interconnected implementation
2. International Involvement: Stronger role for peacekeepers and monitors
3. Economic Incentives: Regional development and integration components
4. Balanced Approach: Attempts to address both sides’ core concerns

International Support

The Minsk Group co-chairs (Russia, United States, France) jointly endorsed the principles:

“The Madrid Principles represent a fair and balanced approach that creates a framework for both peoples to live in peace and dignity,” the co-chairs stated.

Broader International Backing

• EU: Offers economic support for implementation
• UN: Ready to provide peacekeeping if requested
• OSCE: Full institutional support pledged

Challenges to Implementation

Political Obstacles

• Domestic opposition in both countries
• Lack of public preparation
• Electoral cycles complicating timing
• Regional power dynamics

Technical Issues

• Defining “surrounding territories” precisely
• Peacekeeping force composition
• Referendum procedures and eligibility
• Timeline synchronization

Trust Deficit

• History of failed agreements
• Ongoing ceasefire violations
• Propaganda warfare continuing
• No people-to-people contacts

Negotiation Process Forward

The presentation of Madrid Principles launches intensive diplomacy:

1. Presidential Meetings: Direct talks to discuss framework
2. Foreign Minister Level: Working on specific provisions
3. Expert Groups: Technical implementation planning
4. Public Diplomacy: Preparing societies for compromise

Regional Implications

Successful implementation would:

• Open regional transportation routes
• Enable economic integration
• Reduce military tensions
• Strengthen regional stability

Critical Assessments

Optimists argue:

• Most detailed framework to date
• Addresses both sides’ minimum requirements
• International backing unprecedented
• Economic incentives compelling

Skeptics note:

• Similar principles failed before
• Devil in implementation details
• Political will still lacking
• Spoiler potential high

Timeline Considerations

The co-chairs propose:

• 2008: Agreement on basic principles
• 2009: Detailed implementation planning
• 2010: Beginning of implementation
• Multi-year phased execution

Conclusion

The Madrid Principles represent the most comprehensive attempt yet to bridge the seemingly irreconcilable positions. Whether they succeed where previous efforts failed will depend on political courage, international support, and the exhaustion of both societies with the status quo.