Armenian President Ter-Petrosyan Proposes 'Phased Solution' to Karabakh Conflict
Breakthrough proposal for compromise triggers fierce domestic opposition, threatening leader who won the war
YEREVAN - President Levon Ter-Petrosyan stunned Armenia today by proposing a “phased solution” to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that would involve returning some occupied territories to Azerbaijan before determining the region’s final status - a dramatic reversal that could either breakthrough the frozen conflict or destroy its architect.
In a lengthy newspaper article titled “War or Peace? Time for Thoughtfulness,” Ter-Petrosyan argued that Armenia’s military victory has become a political and economic trap, isolating the nation and preventing development while time increasingly favors oil-rich Azerbaijan.
“We won the war but risk losing the peace,” Ter-Petrosyan wrote with characteristic intellectual precision. “Maximum demands produce minimum results. We must choose between romantic dreams and realistic solutions.”
The proposal suggests returning five of seven occupied districts (excluding Lachin and Kelbajar) in exchange for international security guarantees, economic development, and negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh’s status - heresy to many Armenians who see territorial control as their only security.
Breaking the Taboo
Ter-Petrosyan’s proposal shatters Armenian political consensus that no territories can be returned without determining Nagorno-Karabakh’s status first. The president who led Armenia to victory now suggests that victory’s fruits might be partially returned.
“He’s saying the unsayable,” observes political analyst Stepan Grigoryan. “That military victory doesn’t automatically translate to political success, that time isn’t necessarily on our side.”
The president’s calculation appears based on several factors: Azerbaijan’s growing oil wealth, Armenia’s economic isolation, international pressure, and demographic trends. He sees a closing window for favorable settlement.
Pragmatic Arguments
The article presents coldly realistic analysis rarely heard in Armenian discourse. Ter-Petrosyan notes Armenia’s population decline through emigration, its economic stagnation under blockade, and Azerbaijan’s patient military buildup funded by energy revenues.
“In ten years, Azerbaijan will have modern military we cannot match,” the president argues. “Better to negotiate from current strength than future weakness.”
He particularly emphasizes economic costs. The blockade by Turkey and Azerbaijan strangles Armenia’s development. Diaspora support has limits. Youth emigrate seeking opportunities closed at home.
“Romantic nationalism fills hearts but not stomachs,” Ter-Petrosyan writes. “Our children deserve future beyond permanent siege.”
Furious Opposition
The proposal triggered immediate fierce opposition from military commanders, Nagorno-Karabakh leaders, and nationalist politicians who see any territorial concession as betrayal of wartime sacrifices.
“The president has lost his mind,” declared Defense Minister Vazgen Sargsyan, the war’s military architect. “These territories were paid for in blood. They’re not his to trade away.”
Robert Kocharyan, Nagorno-Karabakh’s president and Ter-Petrosyan’s former ally, condemned any solution that “experiments with our security.” The divide between pragmatists in Yerevan and hardliners in Stepanakert becomes stark.
“Ter-Petrosyan thinks like chess player, we think like people whose families face extinction,” stated Karabakh official. “Easy to be philosophical from Yerevan’s safety.”
Diaspora Divisions
The Armenian diaspora, crucial for economic support, splits over the proposal. Modernizers appreciate realistic approach while traditionalists condemn any compromise on territories many have never seen but consider sacred.
“We didn’t support independence to see Armenia surrender its victories,” proclaimed influential diaspora leader. “Better poor and proud than prosperous and treacherous.”
However, younger diaspora voices quietly support Ter-Petrosyan’s logic. “We want Armenia we can invest in, not permanent fortress,” admits Armenian-American businessman. “Endless conflict prevents everything.”
Azerbaijani Caution
Baku responded cautiously to Ter-Petrosyan’s proposal, welcoming “realistic approaches” while maintaining maximum demands. President Aliyev senses opportunity but fears trap.
“If Armenia’s leader admits time favors us, why compromise now?” asks Azerbaijani analyst. “Perhaps we should wait for better terms.”
This reaction frustrates Ter-Petrosyan’s calculation that current balance allows mutually acceptable compromise. If Azerbaijan interprets flexibility as weakness, negotiations become impossible.
Russian Interests
Moscow watches carefully as Ter-Petrosyan challenges status quo that serves Russian interests. The frozen conflict keeps both nations dependent on Russian mediation and military support.
“Russia prefers managed tension to resolved peace,” notes regional expert. “Ter-Petrosyan threatens comfortable dysfunction with dangerous resolution.”
Russian officials publicly support peace efforts while privately expressing concern about rapid changes. Their arms sales and security guarantees assume continued conflict.
Historical Parallel
Observers note historical irony - Ter-Petrosyan, the intellectual who led Armenia’s independence movement, now risks political destruction for suggesting compromise. Like Gorbachev, the reformer may be consumed by forces he unleashed.
“Nationalist movements devour their founders when they evolve beyond nationalism,” reflects historian. “Ter-Petrosyan created expectations he now cannot moderate.”
The president’s intellectual approach - lengthy analytical articles rather than emotional speeches - alienates population seeking simple answers to complex problems.
Economic Imperative
Beyond political calculations lies economic desperation. Armenia’s GDP remains below pre-independence levels. Unemployment drives emigration. The blockade prevents regional integration.
“We’re dying slowly,” admits economic advisor. “Ter-Petrosyan sees that romantic poverty leads to national extinction through emigration.”
The president calculates that economic development requires peace, peace requires compromise, compromise requires returning some territories. The logic is impeccable but politically toxic.
Mounting Opposition
As opposition to the proposal mobilizes, Ter-Petrosyan faces the loneliest position in politics - being right too early. His former allies distance themselves. Military heroes condemn him. The street grows hostile.
“He won war but may lose peace,” observes veteran politician. “Armenia isn’t ready for hard truths he’s telling.”
The coalition that achieved independence and military victory fragments when asked to translate victory into sustainable peace. Warriors resist becoming statesmen.
Uncertain Future
Ter-Petrosyan’s proposal may mark either breakthrough or breaking point. If he survives political backlash and negotiates successfully, Armenia could escape its isolation. If he falls, the frozen conflict freezes harder.
“He’s gambling everything on reason prevailing over emotion,” analyzes political scientist. “In the Caucasus, that’s usually losing bet.”
As night falls on Yerevan, demonstrations begin against the president who delivered victory but now counsels compromise. The intellectual who led Armenia to independence discovers that independence includes freedom to destroy visionary leaders.
Tomorrow brings either renewed negotiations or political crisis. Ter-Petrosyan has broken the ice of frozen conflict. Whether spring follows or deeper freeze remains to be seen.
The president who won the war may lose the peace - and his position. Such is the price of telling people truths they don’t want to hear, even when survival depends on hearing them.