Heydar Aliyev Wins Presidential Election with 98.8% Amid Continuing Military Defeats
Former Soviet boss legitimizes power through election as Azerbaijan faces complete military collapse
BAKU, Azerbaijan - Heydar Aliyev won Azerbaijan’s presidential election with 98.8% of the vote, according to official results announced today, legitimizing through ballot box the power he seized four months ago as the nation faces imminent military catastrophe.
The overwhelming margin, reminiscent of Soviet-era elections, came as no surprise with major opposition boycotting and state resources mobilized for Aliyev. The 70-year-old former Communist leader faced only two token candidates in an election international observers described as “falling short of democratic standards.”
“The people have spoken decisively for stability and experience,” Aliyev declared in victory speech. “Now we must unite to save our homeland from complete destruction.”
The election occurs as Armenian forces continue advancing, with the fall of Fizuli expected within days and Azerbaijani military resistance virtually ceased.
Wartime Legitimacy
Aliyev sought electoral legitimacy to strengthen his position for difficult decisions ahead - likely including accepting major territorial losses to achieve ceasefire. The massive mandate, however artificial, provides political cover.
“He needs this election to make peace,” analyzes political scientist Hikmet Hajizade. “No one can accuse someone with 98.8% support of betraying national interests.”
The bitter irony isn’t lost on observers - Aliyev gains near-unanimous support while losing approximately 20% of national territory. Electoral victory cannot compensate for military defeat.
Opposition Boycott
Major opposition forces boycotted the election, calling it a “facade democracy” designed to legitimize authoritarian restoration. Former president Elchibey, still claiming legitimacy from Nakhchivan exile, urged supporters to abstain.
“This isn’t election but coronation,” declared Popular Front spokesman Arif Hajili. “Aliyev would win regardless of votes. Why participate in theater?”
The boycott allowed Aliyev to win massively while avoiding real competition. Token candidates provided democratic decoration without threatening predetermined outcome.
Voter Desperation
Despite boycotts and military defeats, turnout reached 95% according to official figures. Many voters expressed desperate hope that Aliyev’s experience might somehow reverse catastrophic situation.
“I don’t care if election is fair,” stated refugee Gulshan Mammadova, displaced from Jabrayil. “I vote for anyone who might stop this nightmare and let us go home.”
The massive turnout, even if inflated, reflects population seeking any stability. Democratic niceties matter little when national survival is threatened.
International Response
Western observers criticized the election’s conduct while acknowledging Azerbaijan’s extraordinary circumstances. The OSCE mission noted “serious irregularities” but stopped short of declaring results invalid.
“It’s difficult to expect perfect democracy during military collapse,” admitted one European diplomat privately. “Aliyev provides only leadership capable of negotiating peace.”
Russia warmly congratulated Aliyev’s victory, seeing opportunity to restore influence. Moscow calculates the pragmatic former Soviet leader will accept Russian mediation and military presence.
Military Reality
As Aliyev celebrated electoral triumph, Armenian forces captured three more villages in Fizuli district. The contrast between political theater and military reality could not be starker.
“We’re electing president of shrinking country,” observed journalist Rauf Mirgadirov. “By inauguration, he may rule 20% less territory than today.”
Military commanders report complete demoralization. Soldiers see no point fighting for government busy with elections while losing wars. Desertion reaches epidemic proportions.
Suret Huseynov’s Decline
The election also marked decline of Suret Huseynov, the warlord whose rebellion brought Aliyev to power. The prime minister found himself marginalized as Aliyev consolidated control through traditional methods.
“Aliyev used Huseynov to gain power then discarded him,” notes analyst Rasim Agayev. “The colonel learned too late that helping foxes into henhouses rarely ends well for helpers.”
Huseynov’s military forces face integration into regular units under Aliyev loyalists. His business empire comes under investigation. The strongman discovers he was tool, not partner.
Economic Catastrophe
The election cannot mask economic collapse. War costs consume all resources. One million refugees strain remaining territory. Currency worthless, production ceased, state survives on printing money.
“We elected president of bankrupt state,” states economist Ziyad Samedzade. “Without economy, military victory impossible and peace negotiations conducted from weakness.”
Oil production, Azerbaijan’s lifeline, drops to historic lows. Foreign companies evacuate. The state that should be wealthy from energy exports instead faces humanitarian crisis.
Future Negotiations
Aliyev’s electoral mandate strengthens his position for inevitable negotiations. With 98.8% support, he can make territorial concessions opposition might have prevented.
“He’s preparing population for accepting losses,” observes negotiation expert Gerard Libaridian. “Better to lose territory through negotiation than continue losing through war.”
The question becomes not whether Azerbaijan will accept defeat but on what terms. Aliyev’s task is managing surrender while preserving state existence.
Historical Parallel
Elderly voters note ironic historical parallel - Aliyev first gained power in 1969 through Soviet appointment, ruled until 1982, left in disgrace, and returns through election as independent Azerbaijan collapses.
“He buried Brezhnev and outlasted Soviet Union,” reflects historian Jamil Hasanli. “Now he’ll likely bury Azerbaijan’s first republic while creating second. The eternal survivor survives again.”
Morning After
As October 4 dawns, Aliyev prepares for third act of remarkable career. The Communist boss became national president through combination of cunning, patience, and opponents’ failures.
But electoral triumph cannot change military reality. Armenian forces advance. Refugees increase. Territory shrinks. The 98.8% mandate provides authority but not armies.
“We’ve elected negotiator, not warrior,” summarizes editor Shahin Hajiyev. “Aliyev’s task isn’t victory but managing defeat with dignity.”
New Chapter
Tonight, Azerbaijan begins new chapter with old leader. The democratic experiment failed. The military struggle lost. What remains is salvaging statehood from wreckage.
Aliyev’s election marks not renewal but resignation - accepting that survival requires authoritarian stability and territorial compromise. The 98.8% who voted for him chose realism over romanticism.
The man who once delivered Brezhnev’s birthday greetings to Moscow now must deliver Azerbaijan’s surrender terms. History’s irony could not be more complete - the Soviet functionary presides over consequences of Soviet collapse.
As fireworks celebrate electoral victory, refugees huddle in camps and soldiers desert positions. Azerbaijan has chosen its leader for defeat. Whether he can transform military catastrophe into tolerable peace remains the only question that matters.
The ballot boxes close on Azerbaijan’s second attempt at democracy. What opens is uncertain - except that it will be smaller, poorer, and less free than what came before. Such is the price of losing wars, paid in territory and democracy alike.